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A peace deal ‘as soon as this week’

Українська

By  JACK BLANCHARD with  DASHA BURNS

On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discuss peace in Ukraine,  In today’s Playbook …

— The White House has a secret peace deal with Moscow. How will Ukraine react?

DRIVING THE DAY

President Donald Trump has reportedly put together a peace plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine. | Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

PEACE IN OUR TIME? So this is one way to distract from the Epstein files. The White House is on the brink of unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia that officials say will finally bring the three-and-a-half year war with Ukraine to an end. A senior White House official tells Dasha they expect a framework for ending the conflict to be agreed by all parties by the end of this month — and possibly “as soon as this week.”

As soon as this week? Yes. Buckle up.

Here’s what we know so far: Things are moving fast. The news broke last night — via POLITICO’s defense aces Paul McLeary and Jack Detsch — of a highly unusual trip to Kyiv today by Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, accompanied by two four-star generals and other senior U.S. military officials. They’re expected to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as other top Ukrainian figures, as part of the tour. Zelenskyy is due in Ankara later to talk peace with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, per Reuters. “We have some positions and signals from the U.S.,” is all that Zelenskyy would say.

So what are they all talking about? Last night, Axios’ Barak Ravid revealed detailsof a secret peace plan hammered out directly between the White House and Moscow. Ravid reports top White House envoy Steve Witkoff held three days of talks with a Russian negotiator, Kirill Dmitriev, in Miami late last month; and that a 28-point peace plan is now on the table. Officials in the Trump administration told Dasha last night they are on the brink of a major breakthrough. This is big stuff.

But here’s the thing: This new peace plan has seemingly had no direct input from Ukraine, nor from America’s allies in Europe. And we have no sense yet of the details, of what’s been hammered out on the thorniest questions around Russia’s seizure of vast swathes of Ukrainian territory, the kidnapping of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children or the security guarantees being offered to Ukraine in the aftermath.

The mood inside the White House is bullish, and it seems the plan will be presented to Zelenskyy as a fait accompli. “What we are going to present [to Ukraine] is reasonable,” the senior White House official tells Dasha. The Trump administration thinks Zelenskyy, under pressure both on the battlefield and on the home front (due to a burgeoning corruption scandal), will have to accept what’s on offer.

And as for the rest of Europe? “We don’t really care about the Europeans,” the official tells Dasha. “It’s about Ukraine accepting.”

Here’s how Dasha puts it on this morning’s Playbook Podcast, following conversations with White House staff: “They feel that Ukraine is in the position right now, given the corruption scandals that have been plaguing Zelenskyy, given where the battle lines are at this moment, that Ukraine is in a position where … they feel they can get them to accept this deal. They say it’s reasonable; it’s something that is, they believe, going to be palatable to Ukraine.”

We won’t need to wait long to see if that’s true. But this sounds ominous: Dmitriev, the Russian envoy, told Axios he’s optimistic because “we feel the Russian position is really being heard.”

And there’s more: Dmitriev says the 28-point plan is more than just a ceasefire agreement. This is, he says, a proposal “to address the Ukraine conflict, but also how to restore U.S.-Russia ties [and] address Russia’s security concerns. It’s actually a much broader framework, basically saying, ‘How do we really bring, finally, lasting security to Europe, not just Ukraine.’” Which sounds like a conversation Europe might like to be a part of. But anyway.

Take a step back: The Ukraine war is the most significant military conflict in decades, a major European land war that has upended Western security assumptions and in which an estimated 1.5 million people have been injured or killed. And if what these sides are saying is borne out, we finally appear to be approaching an inflection point. It’s a big moment.

And it would also be a big moment for Donald Trump, who famously pledged on the campaign trail to end the Ukraine war on Day 1 — but who’s since admitted the task has been far harder than he expected. For a president hellbent on landing himself the Nobel Peace Prize, a peace agreement in Ukraine — perhaps any peace agreement in Ukraine — is coveted indeed.

So what happens next? We need some details — and we need to hear Ukraine’s response. Based on past statements, Zelenskyy is likely to push back hard on any aspects of a deal he deems unpalatable. Ukraine will not want to be bounced into giving away sovereign territory; but the pressure brought to bear will be intense. And if the three sides can reach an agreement, that previously postponed Trump-Putin summit will surely follow.

In the meantime: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to bomb Ukrainian cities, with scant regard for civilian lives. Witness this missile hit overnight on a residential block in Ternopil for a quick check-in on precisely how Russia is conducting this war. Zelenskyy said dozens have been injured and nine people killed. “Russia must be held accountable for its actions,” he said.        

©POLITICO

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